🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.