Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.