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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."